Analysis

Top 3 Medals

The table below breaks down top 3 medals taken from female championship and invitational competitions (larger tournaments and meets) by male athletes, both "trans"-identified and not. This table does not include wins at smaller competitions, meets, and regular season games that normally do not award medals or trophies. These numbers are current as of 5/19/2026. Further results may yet be discovered and recorded.

In order to calculate "Displaced Top 3 Medals" using the table below, each 1st place medal would count as three medals displaced (three female athletes received the wrong medal). A 2nd place finish by a male displaces two medals, and a 3rd place finish displaces one medal. The true number of displaced medals is higher, as cross country competitions often award medals to the top 10 athletes at all large meets, and state championships for individual sports such as track and field, swimming, and gymnastics often award anywhere between the top 5 and 10 places a medal. The 9 sectional and 3 state championship medals taken by AB Hernandez in the 2025 and 2026 season were not included in the medals displaced calculation as all female athletes were rewarded their rightful medals in those instances.

This table covers only high school and middle school sports in the United States. It does not include other junior or club athletics the same athletes may have participated in. Team sports are included, as the male athlete has contributed to an unfair win or has taken the place of a female athlete who should have been on the field instead in cases where a team may have won regardless.

Awards

The table below breaks down the female awards taken by males according to "trans" identification and type of award. At least 31.7% of "trans"-identified and 30% of non "trans"-identified male athletes have been awarded at least one all-conference or all-state honor. These are major awards meant to highlight the best athletes in the league in any sport.

General Placement Distribution

The charts below demonstrate the disproportionate success of male athletes in the female category. These charts look at the success of males who identify as "trans" and males who do not identify as "trans" separately as well as the overall distribution of placement of all males. In both cases, the majority of finishes ended in a top 3 placement.

Non "trans"-identified males have a slightly larger percentage of top three finishes. This may possibly be attributed to the absence of cross country athletes from the non "trans"-identified population, as cross country competitions have a much lower rate of success due to a high number of participants in each competition. Non "trans"-identfied males also participated more frequently in team sports, for which the losses factor in less heavily in overall placements. An entire losing season would count as one placement outside the top three, while in individual sports, each competition contributes. Male athletes in the non "trans"-identified category also included athletes who competed at the national level against other males in the club division. This cohort was more likely to include athletes who were serious about the sport and working towards scholarships as opposed to the "trans"-identified cohort which inlcuded a large number of boys who had not had interest in sport or who had not succeeded in sport against male peers prior to their "trans" identification.

Girls' teams with a male athlete on their roster, regardless of "trans" identification, also demonstrate a total win-loss record with more wins than losses. Of the 93 girls' teams with a "trans"-identified male on the roster for which there are records, 65 (69.9%) had a winning record. Of the 153 teams with a non "trans"-identified male on the roster, 118 (77.1%) had a winning record. Teams with a male athlete on the roster were more likely to have a winning record than a losing record.

Impact by State

The charts below demonstrate the overall impact of a male athlete in the girls' division by state. Massachusetts demonstrated the highest overall number of male athletes on girls' teams (n=179), followed by Pennsylvania (n=94) and New York (n=33). These numbers are large underestimates, as per the MIAA participation survey, we can see that there were at least 200 males on girls' teams in the 2024-2025 season alone and similar numbers in past seasons. Male athletes in Massachusetts will continue to be investigated.

The state with the highest number of "trans"-identified athletes was California (n=30) followed by Oregon (n=10). The highest overall competitive impact and displacement from female podiums was seen in California, with males taking 239 first place finishes.(This is due to higher participation by males in individual girls' sports in California as opposed to team sports in Massachusetts).

Impact by Sport

The charts below demonstrate the overall impact of a male athlete in the girls' division by sport. The sport with the largest number of documented male athletes participating on girls' teams is field hockey (n=120), followed by gymnastics (n=64). Each of these sports were almost exclusively impacted by non "trans" identified males.

"Trans"-identified males saw the highest participation in track and field (n=63), cross country (n=32), and volleyball (n=23). The total number of athletes in each sport is larger than the total number of male athletes due to the participation of athletes in multiple sports.

The sports with the highest impact by "trans"-identified males were track and field, cross country, and swimming. Track and field was not shown on the impact chart due to the large number of events. This will be analyzed separately. These charts are limited in depicting the impact of team sports, as they only track top three finishes and not overall wins of team sport regular season games.

Male Participation over Time

The charts below demonstrate the rise in male participation in female sport over a period of 50 years, from 1975 to 2025. The first documented instance of male participation on a girls' team was in 1975, just three years after the passing of Title IX in 1972. The first documented instance of a male specifically identifying as "trans" on a girls' team was in the spring of 2014.

A sharp rise in the participation of "trans"-identified males in girls' sports and the number of events participated in can be seen in 2021. (A small dip in the number of events in 2020-2021 is attributed to the COVID-19 outbreak and the cancellation of school sports seasons.) A sharp decrease in the number of athletes and events affected can be seen in 2025, coinciding with the signing of Presidential Executive Order 14201.

# of Documented Events includes all individual events and team season games, including regular season games. It's important to remember that each event may affect anywhere from 1 to 100 female athletes, on average, at least 10-20. This means, at the peak in 2024, between 14,000 to 28,000 female athletes were negatively impacted in that year alone.

Deep Dive: Track and Field

Track and Field results were excluded from the impact chart due to the large number (n=2,166) and have been analyzed separately here. Due to the nature of track and field as an individual sport and the large number of male participants, we are able to analyze male performance advantage and impact directly as opposed to with team sports. For the purposes of this analysis, middle school athletes were excluded.

4 additional high school athletes were excluded. One athlete's season was cut off by COVID-19, and he only participated in one event. One athlete participated against girls during the regular season but in a separate "non-binary" category for championships (his times, which had broken the girls' state record, were not recorded as official). One athlete participated in a tech school that did not participate in state championship competition, and a fourth athlete also did not participate in championship competition despite ranking at the top of the state. 53 remaining athletes have been included in this analysis.

The most common placement by male athletes in the female category was 1st. A majority of all finishes were in the top 3.

32 male athletes (60.3%) qualified for state championship competition, while in competition against same sex peers, only 23.5% are expected to qualify. This number was arrived at by looking at the number of standard events run at both inoor and outdoor state championship competitions (n=34) multiplied by the number of qualification spots allowed per event (n=24), multiplied by the number of total divisions (n=193). Divisions per state can be found here. This number was then divided by 513,808, the total number of high school girls reported in track and field in the 2024-2025 season. While the 2024-2025 season was used as a reference for participation numbers, this may have been larger or smaller in past seasons.

In some states, it may be more difficult to qualify than others. The fact that athletes often qualify in multiple events, which would decrease the number of athletes qualifying, may be balanced out by relays, which qualify four athletes instead of 1. This also does not take into account that not all divisions and states hold indoor state championships and that athletes who have qualfied for state championships in an outdoor event often qualify for the equivalent events indoor as well. This means the true rate of state qualification may be lower. From the analysis, it is clear that male athletes qualify for state championships in the female division at a much higher rate than would be expected for an athlete against same-sex peers.

A much higher percentage of male athletes (20.7%, n=11) won a state title than would be expected against same-sex peers (1.3%). This number was arrived at by looking at the total number of state championship titles available (34 events between indoor and outdoor seasons in 193 athletic divisions nationwide) divided by the total number of female participants in track and field during the 2024-2025 season (n=513,808).

This does not take into account the differences in difficulty of qualifying for events by state or the fact that some athletes win multiple state titles, decreasing the number of athletes who have actually won a title. It also does not take into account the fact that many schools do not participate in indoor seasons, and many athletes who have won an outdoor state title often win the indoor title in an equivalent event as well. This means that the true percentage of athletes who win a state title may be half of the projected percentage here.

Finally, a much higher rate of male athletes (7.5%, n=4) were represented in the top 10 nationwide rankings compared to expected representation (.06%). This number was arrived at by dividing the number of standard indoor and outdoor events (n=34) multiplied by 10 (the number of top 10 spots per event), divided by the total number of female participants in track and field during the 2024-2025 season (n=513,808).

Blocking puberty demonstrated no difference in performance advantage. Of the 6 male athletes who had reportedly blocked puberty, 66.7% (n=4) qualified for state, 16.7% (n=1) won a state title, and 16.7% (n=1) was in the nationwide top ten. Two of the athletes who have blocked puberty participated in only their freshman season this year while a third is a sophomore and took a 3rd-place medal at state last year. He is likely to win a state title if he competes all four years.

Limitations may include the fact that we are not aware of every single "trans"-identified athlete who has participated in track and field, but in order to see the same rates of success in male athletes in the female category as we would expect to see against same sex peers, there would need to be an additional 846-1,800 male athletes in girls' track and field. In order to see the same rates in the top 10, there would need to be between 6,600-13,000 additional male athletes. For puberty blocked boys, we would expect to see only one in the top 10 rankings out of every 1,666-3,333 individuals.

Based on state laws restricting girls' sports to female-only and reports coming from each state on participation rates of "trans"-identified male athletes, it is not likely that there are an additional 800 to 13,000 male athletes who have participated undetected in girls' track and field without having won a single additional state medal.

Comparative Ranking Analysis

The following charts analyze the performances of male athletes compared to those of all female athletes who have participated in an event. To first establish the bell curve distribution, performance rankings were taken from Athletic.net for each event from the 2024-2025 season. (This season was chosen as it was the most recent completed, but past seasons could be expected to show similar if not identical performance distributions) These represent the best performance recorded by every female athlete who participated in the event that year. The best performance of each male athlete who also competed in the event against female athletes was then plotted. Dividers have been added to mark the median, top 25%, top 10%, and top 5% of all performances.

Low-performing males who only had one recorded performance in the event were excluded, as events require specific training and a one-off instance of participation demonstrates that the athlete was not training for this specific event.

13 male athletes participated in the girls' high jump. Only one athlete performed below the median. This athlete participated in only one season of track and field and the high jump only three times. High jump is a technique-heavy event. 12 of the 13 athletes performed in the top 25%, 6 in the top 10%, and 3 in the top 5%.

Blocking puberty did not demonstrate significant effect, as all three puberty-blocked boys performed in the top 25% with two in the top 10% and one ranked in the top 10 in the nation.

18 male athletes participated in the girls' 400-meter dash. Zero athletes performed below the median. 16 of the 18 performed in the top 25%. 13 of the 18 (72.2%) performed in the top 10%, and 9 of 18 (50%) performed in the top 5%.

Blocking puberty demonstrated no significant effect, as both puberty-blocked athletes were in the top 25% with one in the top 5%. Both puberty-blocked boys were freshmen in the 2025-2026 season.

A larger performance advantage may have been observed here as the 400 does not rely as heavily on technique as the high jump.

6 male athletes participated in girls' shot put. All 6 athletes performed in the top 10%, with 5 of the 6 in the top 5% of all "female" performances. Throwing has been reported to be one of the largest sex-based performance differences between males and females. Also notable is that only two of the 6 athletes had participated in the shot put in multiple seasons. This means that almost all athletes relied on strength entirely rather than technique for their performances.

Blocking puberty did not demonstrate any significant difference in performance, as the single athlete who has reportedly blocked puberty still performed in the top 5%. This athlete is still an underclassman.

28 male athletes participated in the girls' 200 meter dash more than once in a season. All but one athlete (96.4%) performed above the median. 24 athletes (85.7%) performed in the top 25%. 14 (50%) were in the top 10%, and 12 (42.8%) were in the top 5%.

It should be noted that the lowest performing boy only participated in the 200 one season as an underclassmen. The second lowest performing boy (29.97 seconds) is still a freshman, only particpated in the 200 meters twice all season, and is primarily a distance runner, having won several cross country races. The third lowest boy (29.12 seconds) only particpated in track and field one season.

All three athletes who have reportedly blocked puberty still performed in the top 25-26%. While the four individuals performed towards the lower end of the male performances, two of the boys who have reportedly blocked puberty were only freshman and one was a sophomore this season and are likely to continue improving.